From phase down to phase out

One of the core issues discussed at the 26th session of Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow, which concluded on Saturday, was coal. Or to be more specific, "consigning coal power to history", as Alok Sharma, president for the COP 26 put it.

However, it is difficult to achieve that goal.

Although coal burning is a significant driver of climate change, contributing 44 percent of the world's carbon dioxide emissions, coal still accounts for 37 percent of the global primary energy supply. More than one-third of global power generation comes from coal.

China is a developing country with the largest population in the world. Its energy demand has grown in tandem with its economic development. It is therefore not difficult to imagine how big the economic and social impact would be if there are any energy supply disruptions. A nationwide wave of power use rationing and even serious blackouts that began at the end of August this year affected economic and social operations and the daily lives of people in more than 20 provinces across the country. Although it was largely a consequence of a short-term coal supply shortage and imperfect power market mechanism, not the country's efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the consequences of blindly phasing out coal-fired power during the transition to carbon neutrality without meeting power supply and security requirements were evident.

China's power sector accounts for about 12 percent of global carbon emissions and almost all of these emissions come from coal power generation. It is therefore natural to see rising global concern about China's coal power sector. China accounts for 50 percent of the global installed capacity of coal power plants in service. The net increase in installed coal power capacity in China over the past five years was 150 GW, while the rest of the world has seen a net increase of 9 GW.

The policies in place, the actions taken and the results achieved fully demonstrate that China is committed to its low-carbon transition that will achieve a dynamic balance between energy security and carbon emissions reduction based on its own national conditions.

The improvement in the energy efficiency of China's coal power generation units continues to lead the world. By the end of 2020, China had about 950 GW of coal-fired power units with ultra-low pollutant emissions retrofits and more than 800 GW of units with energy-efficiency retrofits. The lower coal consumption rate has enabled the coal power industry to reduce its CO2 emissions in 2020 by 370 million tons from the level of 2010.

China is sparing no effort to phase out its outdated coal-fired units, with a total of 76.83 GW phased out from 2006 to 2010, and another 120 GW from 2011 to 2020, which has pushed forward the structural optimization and technological progress of coal-fired power units.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-20), China has implemented the most stringent coal power supply-side reform to hedge against the risk of overcapacity of coal power units under construction. A total of 150 GW of coal power projects have been canceled, halted or suspended.

If the keywords of China's coal power policy before 2020 were "clean and efficient" and "optimizing structure", then the keywords for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25) are "flexible", "carbon peaking" and "security of power and heat supply".

Flexible refers to the flexible operation of existing and new coal-fired power plants, allowing a high penetration of renewable energy, which represents a realistic path to accelerate the development of renewable energy in the mid-term.

Carbon peaking requires allowing efficient coal power units to generate more electricity, using relatively inefficient coal power as peaking units with reduced operating hours, and retiring outdated coal power units or else using them as emergency backup to further optimize the efficiency of the existing capacity. Less coal use and more renewable deployment can enable the peaking of CO2 emissions in the power sector.

Security of power and heat supply indicates that China is still in the middle of its industrialization process with fast urbanization, which means an inevitable growth in power and heat demand. Therefore, it is important to save energy and reduce emissions by leveraging the capacity of existing coal power and expanding power and heat cogeneration to replace inefficient boilers and bulk coal. For security of power supply, coal units to be retired or which fall short of the environmental protection standards, instead of being dismantled, should be repurposed for emergency backup when necessary. The number and scale of new coal power projects approved should be strictly controlled, and they should function as safeguards for national power supply and energy security.

China's overarching carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy document and the 2030 carbon peaking action plan have laid out a clear path ahead. The added coal power projects and coal consumption will be strictly controlled during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and then the curve will become flat during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period. The aim is to build a power system with a growing proportion of new energy that is characterized by the extensive supply/consumption of clean power. As for the long-term energy transition, China has set a very ambitious target of 80 percent of non-fossil energy consumption by 2060. Based on the above announced targets, China will enter a peak plateau period for coal power installation, power generation and carbon emissions between 2025 and 2030, after which the number of added coal power units will stop increasing, and unabated coal power will slide into decline after 2030 and exit the power sector in the end.

The key to addressing climate change is action. China always honors its words. All parties should work together to ensure the Paris Agreement is implemented on the ground in a consistent and reliable manner, and avoid flip-flopping on what they have promised.

The author is a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University and deputy director of the Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-carbon Development. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn