Pull together not apart

Tripartite and multi-party cooperation is needed to strive to create an open and multi-dimensional mode with Africa

In 2021, the Omicron strain of the novel coronavirus has made the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Africa more difficult. As of Jan 9, the cumulative number of cases in Africa had exceeded 10 million, but the vaccine shortage has been severe with the vaccination rate of the continent only 6 percent, highlighting the immunization gap. According to the World Health Organization, Africa will not reach its target of 70 percent vaccination coverage until August 2024.

Although Africa is not the source of the pandemic, it is the most affected region and will be the last to end it. In the past year, the political situation in Africa was stable on the whole, with many countries' elections held smoothly. However, the deep-seated impact of the pandemic has led to increased local turbulence. Economic growth in Africa is low and is not enough to reverse the threat of high inflation, rising unemployment, worsening poverty and frequent grassroots violence brought about by the pandemic. Low growth, high debt and underdevelopment have become the main features of Africa's economic and social development. Although major countries in the world continue to seek ways to strengthen relations with Africa and attach importance to investment in Africa, in the context of China-US game, African countries are forced to choose sides, squeezing Africa's space for independent development.

Although mired in instability, low growth and underdevelopment in 2021, Africa faces both opportunities and challenges in its development in 2022.

Economically, a rebound in global trade and the stabilizing of commodity prices have helped the recoveries of African countries, but inflation and tighter monetary policy in developed countries have increased the pressure on their economies. It is noteworthy that the emergence of COVID-19 is forcing African countries to accelerate economic transformation and African integration. In early 2022, the Secretariat of the African Continental Free Trade Area launched the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, which ended the dependence on third-party currencies for cross-border payments between African countries, benefiting African small and medium-sized enterprises, processors and exporters, promoting sustainable trade and economic development in Africa, and accelerating Africa's industrialization.

At the same time, African countries continue to leverage investment opportunities in the digital economy, low-carbon economy, new infrastructure and other areas to promote diversified and green growth models. But affected by a combination of fiscal constraints and security instability, the 3.6 percent GDP growth forecast is nearly a percentage point lower than the 2000-2019 average, and does little to improve per capita income, which in 2022 will be still lower than it was a decade ago.

In 2022, China-Africa cooperation presents more opportunities than challenges.

Although it has made both Africa's recovery and China-Africa cooperation difficult, the pandemic has not changed the complementarity of economic structures between China and Africa, but inspired them to work together to overcome difficulties and create various innovative mechanisms and models for their economic and trade cooperation, highlighting the strategic value and exemplary significance of China-Africa cooperation.

First, Africa still has strong demand for economic and social development. African countries have not only enhanced their willingness and motivation to seize the opportunities of the adjustment to the global value chain structure, and are trying to improve their investment environments; they are also promoting industrialization, urbanization and the integration process, increasing their alignment for an African continent market, with the promising picture of large cities, industrial clusters and economic corridors. Infrastructure construction, industrial system development, comprehensive urban development, finance, insurance, communications, logistics and other industries have bred huge investment and consumption demand.

Second, the African market has huge potential. In particular, the African Continental Free Trade Area will unleash Africa's development potential to a great extent. According to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimates, it will boost Africa's economic growth rate by 1-3 percentage points and increase employment by 1.2 percentage points. By 2025, the output value of Africa's manufacturing industry is expected to reach $1 trillion, and the size of its consumer market to expand to $6.7 trillion by 2030.

Third, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has charted the course for sustainable development of China-Africa cooperation. The Eighth Ministerial Conference of FOCAC was held in Senegal at the end of November 2021, at which the Dakar Action Plan (2022-24) and China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035 were adopted. The outcomes of the conference demonstrated the consensus and confidence of China and Africa in forging ahead in times of crisis and building a China-Africa community with a shared future in the new era. Moreover, China-Africa cooperation has taken on new dimensions. While boosting its traditional strengths, China will focus on the most pressing development needs of African countries, and strengthen cooperation in such areas as health, people's livelihoods, green development, the digital economy and capacity building.

Therefore, more attention should be paid to Africa's concerns, highlighting bilateral communication and bilateral institutional improvement. The African side should take the main responsibility for improving its investment environment, and Chinese enterprises must be urged to strengthen risk prevention and control, to ensure the safety of their personnel and property. The China-Africa economic and trade cooperation should be coordinated, taking into consideration both economic and social benefits, to improve the quality of assistance and broaden the space for China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. Finally, tripartite and multi-party cooperation should be promoted to create an open and multi-dimensional cooperation model.

The author is a senior research fellow and chief of the Center of Southern Africa Studies at the China-Africa Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn