California's population shrinks for second straight year

The US' most populous state is losing population for the second year in a row.

California lost 117,552 residents in 2021, bringing the population to 39,185,605 as of Jan 1, according to a report released this week by the state's finance department. 

State officials said the population loss was driven by many factors, including falling birthrates, an aging population, restricted immigration, and the pandemic death toll and the exodus of residents to other states.

A Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) statewide survey finds that 37 percent of Californians have seriously considered leaving the state because of housing costs. 

Since 2015, 413,000 adult residents have moved from California to other states, citing housing as the primary reason, said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at (PPIC). He wrote in an article published in March that the primary driver for population loss during the past two years has been the result of residents moving to other states.

In California, the median price of an existing single-family home hit a record high of $849,080 in March, while the national median price for the same housing type was $357,100 in January, according to data from the California Association of Realtors and National Association of Realtors.

But state officials said despite the exodus of residents to avoid high living costs, the population wouldn't have declined if it weren't for "COVID-19-related deaths" and "federal policies restricting immigration".

Before the pandemic, the average annual immigration rate was 140,000 people, but last year the number dropped to 43,300, according to the state finance department's report.

California had 69,000 excess deaths due to the pandemic in 2021. Demographers use "excess deaths" to indicate the number of deaths from the pandemic above and beyond what would have been expected under normal conditions.

Officials expect the state's population to stabilize in the coming years, especially if there are no more pandemic deadly waves.

The loss of population has caused the state to lose a seat in Congress for the first time in its 171-year history, after the 2020 census found the state's population growth is slowing. 

It means California will have one fewer representative in the House and one fewer vote in the Electoral College that decides the presidency, and proportionately less of the federal money distributed by population each year. 

Experts also point to other results, such as a worsening shortage of workers and a widening economic divide, as those leaving the state tend to have low incomes and low levels of education while those moving in have higher levels of education and income.

California's population growth began to slow in the 1990s after exploding in the previous decade by 6 million people. In 2020, the state's population fell for the first time in more than a century when it lost 182,083 residents.

The trend continued in 2021, when most counties in California saw population declines, including the state's three most populous counties — Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange, according to the PPIC report. But some interior counties saw population growth as residents moved from the expensive coastal cities to inland areas.

Despite the drop in the number of residents, California is still the nation's most populous state, far ahead of second-place Texas with 29.5 million residents.