Declining births trigger calls for action

Experts said that all-out efforts must be made to raise the low fertility rate so as to counter the persistent downward trend and avert a sharp population decline in the long term.

Measures strongly advocated by experts and families include relieving the burden of raising children by providing stronger financial incentives, while nurturing a desire among the younger generation for marriage and to have children.

Yuan Xin, a demography professor at Nankai University in Tianjin, said the annual disparity between the number of newborns and deaths will not be sharply defined in coming years, but the nation will witness a decline in its total population for decades to come.

"Negative population growth is an inevitable result of a persistently low fertility rate. China has had a low fertility rate for more than 30 years," he said.

Official data show there were some 9.56 million births in China last year, the first time the figure had fallen below 10 million in more than six decades.

The fertility level — the average number of babies born to women over a lifetime — dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in 1992. By 2020, it had fallen to 1.3.

Yuan said, "We will witness an early phase of negative population growth during the decades to 2050, but the downfall will be mild and will provide a precious window of opportunity (to encourage births).

"If we can raise the fertility rate to an appropriate level during the initial stage (of negative growth), we have the chance to avoid or lessen the impact of an abrupt decline in the total population," he said.