Drought continues in Horn of Africa

Light rainfall has blessed parts of the Horn of Africa recently, but a meteorological expert in Kenya says the region is likely to continue to experience prolonged severe drought threatening lives and livelihoods, including of millions of refugees and internally displaced people.

David Gikungu, director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, said his country is staring at a sixth unsuccessful rainy season in a row even as most parts of Kenya look likely to receive less rain than usual in the March-May season. This is the major rainfall season in the country, with long rains over most parts of Kenya and parts of Equatorial Eastern Africa.

"However, below-average rainfall is expected this year, and farmers are advised to plant fast-growing or drought-resistant crops," Gikungu said.

Despite reduced rainfall, isolated incidences of storms that could cause flash floods are still likely to occur, he said. Meanwhile, the Kenya Meteorological Department said most global models suggest that an El Nino event is likely in the region toward the end of this year.

"The World Meteorological Organization and key global climate centers have indicated that sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial central Pacific Ocean are likely to return to neutral in the coming months, with El Nino development being the most likely outcome between June and August," Gikungu said.

The most severe drought in the Horn of Africa over the past 40 years has exposed about 20 million people to the risk of hunger, the United Nations has said.

In a joint statement in February, 15 meteorological and humanitarian agencies working with the UN said the current drought in the Horn of Africa began with low rainfall from October to December 2020, and rainfall has been low in all four subsequent seasons. In the current rainy season of March to May, rainfall is forecast to be below normal to normal.

The drought in Kenya and the Horn of Africa demonstrates how climate change has threatened the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people and destabilized communities, Gikungu said.

"East Africa is characterized by two distinct rainfall seasons compared with western and southern Africa, which have a single intense rainfall season. Anything that interferes with the huge water bodies or air masses and pressure systems that determine the weather patterns in the region is likely to influence rainfall performance. The observed climate variability could be attributed to such interference."

With the effects of climate change growing more severe by the day, meteorologists are increasingly depending on early warnings to provide a good starting point for preparing for the intensifying extreme events now unfolding, he said.

Gikungu called for urgent action from both individual countries and at the global level.

otiato@chinadaily.com.cn