Global economy faces rough weather ahead

Leading to disruptions

The so-called decoupling or de-risking undeniably leads to disruptions to the global supply chains, said Xu from the Bank of China International. "The potential hurdles and risks associated with this trend raise valid concerns about the overall stability and interconnectedness of the global economic landscape."

Commenting on economic security, Pascal Lamy, former director-general of the World Trade Organization, said: "You cannot do anything just by waving your flag of national security. This would destroy the multilateral trading system. So we have an issue which I think necessitates better attention."

As the US monetary tightening cycle nears an end, there is a real risk of recession for the US whose economy stands at a "precarious crossroads", Xu said, pointing to challenges to global economic recovery.

"Although overall if I look at these three engines — technology, ideology, and peace or geopolitical tensions or conflicts — I still believe that these engines will keep pushing for globalization," Lamy told a recent event hosted by the Center for China and Globalization.

2024 will be a pivotal year for elections worldwide, coupled with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Gaza crisis, which will add to uncertainties across the globe, Wang said.

Although headwinds abound, Wang remains cautiously optimistic about the potential growth.

"It is still possible for the international community to maintain overall peace. After the pandemic, the willingness of countries around the world to strive for economic development has not waned, and the momentum of technological change has not stalled," he said.

"Additionally, the negative repercussions of the Fed's rate hikes will be absorbed gradually, and it is widely anticipated that the Fed will pivot to monetary easing next year. These factors combined will bring new impetus and hope to the recovery of the world economy."