Begun in earnest

SONG CHEN/CHINA DAILY

China's respectful engagement with Africa holds hope for a future of transformative relations

Since the end of colonial rule in 1963, Kenya has adjusted its development path to become a modest regional business and financial hub. Kenya has attracted investments from some Global North countries such as the United States, and Global South countries such as China. During these years, Kenya-China ties have set a good example for South-South cooperation.

Hence in May 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping and then-Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta elevated the China-Kenya relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation, signaling high expectations and a bright future for bilateral ties and cooperation. For its part, Kenya expanded its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, continued the implementation of Belt and Road projects, and enhanced Kenya-China partnership in a comprehensive and strategic way.

Will this strong China-Kenya relationship change because of the ongoing global competition? There are good reasons for believing that global competition will have minimal impact on the China-Kenya cooperation.

During his first term as US president, Donald Trump expressed interest in a free trade agreement with Kenya. Later, in 2018, the US invited Kenya to enter a strategic partnership covering economic advancement, trade and investment, as well as regional issues. In 2022, then president Joe Biden carried this idea further and launched the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership. The agreement was presented as the new model for future agreements with the US in Africa and elsewhere. The agreement's explicit linking of economic and security concerns is consistent with President Trump's stated primary objective: to make the US more safe, secure and prosperous.

It is therefore reasonable to expect that under the second Trump administration, the US will only encourage more US enterprises in technology, consumer goods, banking and finance or healthcare to set up operations in Kenya, building on Kenya's role as a regional hub.

If this strategy brings more US enterprises into Kenya and, by extension, Eastern Africa, they will almost certainly be faced with the reality that in recent years, China and Kenya have fostered productive cooperation to achieve mutually beneficial results.

In 2023, China exported $7.88 billion worth of goods to Kenya, mostly consumer electronics, machinery, plastics, hot-rolled steel products and rubber footwear, which meet the needs of Kenyans. The fact is that Kenya's small but growing middle class thrives on consumer products imported from China amid signs that there is movement to produce some of the goods locally under joint ventures. These trends have made China Kenya's largest trading partner and its primary source of imports. And many bilateral economic and trade agreements have been signed. The Kenya China Economic and Trade Association has reported that Chinese companies in Kenya employed over 60,000 Kenyans in 2022 to 2023, achieving a localization ratio exceeding 90 percent.

At the same time, the product lines that Kenya and Africa can sell to China are expanding under the framework of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. The only conditions are phytosanitary rules. This, and the growing production of consumer goods by Chinese entities in African countries including Kenya, set the stage for a much more expansive trade and investment engagement for China.

Ties with China benefit Kenya's sustainable development and improve living standards. On this basis, there are reasons to believe that China and Kenya will further their cooperation against the backdrop of Trump's "America First "policy that disregards the interests of Kenyans. In any case, Kenyan policymakers are unlikely to enter into agreements that do not advance Kenya's agenda.

China's posture enhances its comparative advantage. For years Kenyan policymakers sought help in overcoming the obvious shortfall in infrastructure, an obstacle to modernization for a long time. Requests for help were unsuccessful because, fundamentally, Western partners did not share the vision of an industrialized Kenya.

Driven by a posture which accepts the vision of an industrialized Kenya and more broadly, Africa, China entered the scene with what eventually became the BRI. In Kenya, this has led to the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway which promises to pave the way for the emergence of local industries and a break from extraction model of development. Current discussions focus on the next phase: upgrading rural roads to foster small value chains for industrialization. There are many similar examples across the continent in which China is helping Africans to attain long-held goals alongside China's pursuit of its own objectives.

Finally, the ability and willingness to help promote Kenya's modernization without any interference in its internal affairs are seen by many Kenyans as one of China's most favorable qualities. It is a formula for long-term cooperation. This respectful engagement, in addition to a posture which gives credence to Kenya's vision of itself, promises a future of transformative relations.

The author is a former economist with the World Bank and adviser to the Kenyan government. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.