La Nina weather pattern could bring extreme cold, droughts, says NCC

China is likely to experience the onset of a La Nina climate pattern in the late autumn, which could bring freezing rain and snow in the north, southwest, and central regions this winter, while southern areas may face periods of drought, according to meteorologists.

Zhang Daquan, an official with the National Climate Center, said on Wednesday that in recent monitoring of ocean atmosphere, much of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has registered sea surface temperatures below normal, indicating a neutral-to-cool state.

"On that basis," Zhang said, "the climate prediction office forecasts a transition to La Nina conditions in the upcoming season."

Historically, winters during La Nina years in China, December through February have seen a higher probability of below-average temperatures. "Snow disasters in the north and freezing or icy weather in the south were relatively more common in the earlier decades," Zhang said, adding that the freezing conditions were severe in 2008 and 2018.

However, experts stressed that a La Nina event does not guarantee an "extreme cold winter" and may even result in a warm winter under global warming, Zhang said, using the winter of 2020-2021 as an example.

Additionally, China's winter climate is not only influenced by tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, but also by factors such as Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and mid to high-latitude atmospheric circulation systems, he added.

It's the result of multiple factors working together, requiring a comprehensive assessment that integrates monitoring and forecasting information from the ocean, cryosphere, and atmosphere.

"The winter temperature fluctuations in China have become more pronounced, requiring close attention to the potential adverse impacts of sharp cooling and warming events on production and daily life," Zhang said.