Japan's rising defense spend stirs concern

Experts have voiced concern that the rapid expansion of Japan's military spending will not only continue to squeeze funds for social welfare, but also heighten the risk of escalating tensions and war.

Japan's parliament on Tuesday approved a supplementary budget totaling 18.3 trillion yen ($118 billion) for the current fiscal year ending in March, providing funding for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's large-scale policy initiatives.

Japanese media reported that as part of efforts to build what Takaichi described as a "strong economy", 6.4 trillion yen has been allocated to boost investment in crisis management and economic growth, with a focus on AI research and development, shipbuilding and space strategy.

The supplementary budget also sets aside 1.7 trillion yen for security and diplomatic initiatives.

The draft budget cleared the House of Councillors — the upper chamber — just a day before the end of the current parliamentary session, after passing through the House of Representatives last week.

The large amount of nonurgent spending has intensified public concerns over Japan's fiscal health and people's livelihoods.

"If fiscal resources are not genuinely invested in people's livelihoods, but instead military spending continues to expand through supplementary budgets and other means, society will become unsustainable," Mieko Takenobu, professor emeritus at Wako University in Machida, Japan, said at a recent event, urging Takaichi to retract her erroneous remarks concerning China's Taiwan.

Takenobu said Japan's current defense spending has far exceeded the normal bounds of a budgetary framework, while funding for people's daily lives has been continuously squeezed, weakening the social security system.

Japan has decided to raise defense-related spending to 43 trillion yen ($276 billion) over the next five years through March 2028. In addition to personal income tax, the government plans to increase corporate income tax and tobacco tax, both scheduled to take effect from April.

Earlier this month, national daily The Mainichi, citing sources, reported that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is considering raising personal income tax starting in January 2027 by introducing a special income tax to finance defense spending, which is expected to generate more than 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in additional annual revenue. The timing of its implementation remains under discussion.

Although a special income tax introduced for post-disaster reconstruction is set to be reduced, it is expected to be extended, leaving the overall tax burden unchanged. In the long run, the proposed defense tax is still expected to further increase the financial burden on households. Together, the three planned tax measures are projected to generate more than 1 trillion yen annually, The Mainichi said.

Mounting pressure

Takenobu warned that the government's plans to raise taxes and increase social insurance premiums would further exacerbate poverty.

Against the backdrop of mounting fiscal and social pressure, she said Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan are particularly dangerous, as they risk undermining the postwar consensus in Japan of "never going to war".

"War does not begin only when fighting actually breaks out. It begins killing people when military expansion gains public support and defense budgets continue to balloon."

For more than a month since Takaichi made the remarks, weekly protests have been held in front of the Prime Minister's Office, calling on her to retract her statements and stop inciting war. Yet, she has not clearly indicated that she will do so.

At an event marking the 88th anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre on Thursday, Akinobu Ito, president of the Japan-China Workers Exchange Association, expressed concern over what he described as dangerous trends at the national level in Japan.

As the risk of war escalates, the public must not turn a blind eye, he said. He urged citizens to continue demanding that the government uphold the constitution and halt discussions on constitutional revision and military expansion.