The high cost of US cutting vaccine funding

Vaccines are a vital tool that save millions of lives every year. Concerningly, the United States is cutting funding for a key organization that saves lives around the world through immunization. The US' decision coincides with rising measles cases amid vaccine safety debates.

The politics over the COVID-19 pandemic saw growing rejection of vaccines — and that shift has contributed to the Donald Trump administration's decision to cut funding for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Gavi is estimated to have saved the lives of 17 million children over the last 25 years. The loss of US support would mean that 75 million children will miss their routine vaccinations in the next five years, and more than 1.2 million children could die as a result, according to the organization.

The vast number of children dying from infectious diseases today live in less-developed countries, but we forget that less than two centuries ago, even rich countries lived in an era of pestilence. Infectious diseases at the time caused almost half of annual American and British deaths, whereas today they cause only about 3 percent of all deaths in the US. Yet infectious diseases still kill more than 3 million children in the world's poorer regions.

We need to bring everyone together on uncontroversial, lifesaving childhood vaccines like those for mumps and measles. Governments need to not only maintain the current spending rate, but also increase it. Doing so would create opportunities to drive huge advances in global development for a very small investment, something that should be attractive to everyone, regardless of their politics.

Vaccines are one of the most amazing achievements of humankind. They have saved more lives than any other medical invention, and provide population-level control of diseases that once caused untold misery. Vaccines have even managed to completely erase one of humanity's most deadly diseases, smallpox, after it killed indiscriminately for millenniums. Just in the 20th century, it likely killed 300-500 million people, before being finally eradicated more than four decades ago thanks to a vaccine. If that vaccine didn't exist, this one disease could still kill about 5 million people each year.

It is estimated that globally, immunization efforts have saved 154 million lives in half a century, or six lives for every minute of every year. The vast majority, 101 million, were infants.

Investing in vaccines, of course, prevents infectious disease deaths. But by stopping diseases like polio, measles and tetanus, we also reduce the pressure on the healthcare systems of less-developed countries, making it possible for them to help heart and cancer patients better.

Moreover, since infectious diseases know no borders, there is less strain on healthcare systems across the world. This minimizes economic disruptions, and fosters a more secure global environment.

Researchers for my think tank, Copenhagen Consensus Center, have documented the costs and benefits of maintaining and increasing global investment in vaccinations in research published by Cambridge University Press.

If the world continues its current level of spending, we will save about 3.8 million lives every year from avoidable diseases between now and 2030. Each dollar will deliver an absolutely astounding $286 of social benefits, from saving lives and avoiding disease.

The study also shows that increasing vaccination coverage, even if more expensive, will still be an incredible deal. Over the next eight years, we could save an additional 4.1 million lives, or about half a million lives each year.

The costs would go up, as governments expand vaccination campaigns to harder-to-reach places and families. It may be necessary for more countries to copy the example of India, which uses food incentives to ensure greater coverage.

Yet, the additional total, direct global cost would still be a relatively modest $1.5 billion a year, along with about $200 million in extra time taken mostly by mothers who have to go to clinics. A half million lives saved each year make this an incredible opportunity. Using standard economic evaluations across time and considering that avoided impacts closer to now are more important to us, the benefit is worth about $170 billion annually.

In economic terms, each dollar spent will generate $101 of social benefits to the world. Achieving a 100-to-1 value for money is a phenomenal return on any policy.

Saving the lives of 3.8 million children each year with safe, basic vaccinations is an astounding deal, and saving half a million children more each year with even higher vaccination coverage is an incredible opportunity. We should embrace both and ensure that all children are given lifelong prevention against killer diseases.

The author is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center. His book, Best Things First, was named by The Economist as one of the best books of 2023.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.