Vietnam's population to peak in 2059 as aging accelerates

Vietnam's population is projected to peak around 2059 before entering a period of slow growth or stability, according to long-term demographic projections released in December, as the country prepares for rapid aging, persistent gender imbalances and shifting migration patterns.

The findings were presented at a workshop hosted by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam in coordination with the UN Population Fund, drawing on recent census data and large-scale surveys covering socioeconomic conditions across most ethnic groups.

Under a medium-fertility scenario, Vietnam's population is expected to continue growing for several decades before reaching a peak around mid-century, followed by a transition toward slower growth or stability.

Over the 2024-74 period, the nation's population size is projected to rise to about 114 million, with outcomes varying significantly depending on fertility trends.

The so-called "golden population structure" — when the working-age population significantly outnumbers dependents — is expected to end by 2036, paving the way for an era of population aging and, eventually, super-aging.

This shift will be driven by a contraction in younger and middle-aged cohorts and a rapid increase in the elderly population, placing mounting pressure on labor supply, healthcare systems and social protection frameworks.

At the same time, an imbalance in the sex ratio at birth is expected to persist well into the middle of the 21st century, continuing to skew the population's gender structure.

Urbanization, while ongoing, is also projected to slow as the urban population approaches the 50 percent mark. Internal migration remains a key force reshaping population distribution, reflecting disparities in economic opportunity and labor demand between regions.

New data show that internal migration has declined in recent years, dropping from about 6.4 million people in the 2014-19 period to roughly 3.8 million between 2019 and 2024.

City-to-city migration accounts for more than 70 percent of all moves, suggesting that most migrants leaving urban areas are relocating to other cities rather than returning to rural areas.

Short-distance moves are becoming increasingly common, a trend that researchers attribute to a growing preference for residential stability and lower mobility costs.

While the overall scale of migration has fallen, migration among ethnic groups has declined only slightly, pushing up their share of total migrants.

Analysts said this indicates early gains from job creation and development policies in rural, peri-urban and satellite-city areas.

A separate report released at the workshop found that illiteracy rates among tiny ethnic groups — those with populations under 10,000 — are more than twice as high as among larger ethnic communities.

Early marriage, low educational attainment and inadequate sanitation were identified as overlapping factors driving multidimensional poverty among ethnic groups.

Education — especially at the secondary level for girls — was singled out as a critical lever for reducing intergenerational poverty and curbing child marriage, officials said, calling for more flexible and targeted policy interventions tailored to the specific conditions of different ethnic communities.

Taken together, the findings point to a narrowing window for Vietnam to capitalize on its remaining demographic dividend, while underscoring the need for long-term planning to manage aging, migration and gender imbalance.

VIET NAM NEWS