Peace elusive as conflict drags on into 5th year

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its fifth year, experts warn of the profound and systemic damage it is inflicting on the global political and economic order.

Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, a substantive peace agreement still appears distant, with the conflict morphing into a grinding war of attrition, experts said, emphasizing that multilateralism and moving away from great-power competition are essential to reaching a resolution.

The Ukraine crisis has caused a heavy human and economic toll since it began in 2022. A recent assessment released by the United Nations estimates that Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery will cost nearly $588 billion over the next decade — a sum almost triple the country's 2025 GDP.

Matthias Schmale, the UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine, said in a statement released on Tuesday that 10.8 million people within Ukraine urgently need humanitarian aid and millions have been displaced due to the ongoing conflict.

The casualty figures extend beyond the battlefield. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said on Tuesday that Ukrainian attacks have killed 8,000 Russian civilians and injured 27,000 over the past four years.

Analysts argue that the conflict has gone beyond a bilateral dispute. Wang Shuo, an international relations professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said, "The Ukraine crisis is essentially a geopolitical contest. Its duration has exceeded many expectations, and the damage from its prolongation is immense."

The ripple effects are reshaping Europe fundamentally, said Wang. "The continent's focus has shifted from liberal agendas like green transition to hard security and defense. The crisis has spawned an internal chain of crises within European nations, extending from the economy, society, and politics, fueling populism and complicating governance," Wang explained. "This impact is deep and systemic."

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted the conflict has transformed the global order, economically and politically dividing the world.

"The weaponization of finance, energy, food, and trade through sweeping sanctions has severely fractured global supply chains. This has widened the development gap, with developing countries disproportionately affected by the conflict's spillover effects," said Zhang.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to break the deadlock. Since the start of this year, the two sides, along with the US, have held several rounds of talks. The latest round concluded in Geneva on Feb 18 without a breakthrough on core issues like territory and security guarantees.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia's commitment to a diplomatic resolution on Tuesday but insisted Russia's special military operation will continue until its goals are achieved.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday reaffirmed Ukraine's pursuit of a lasting peace while defending its sovereignty. He told the Financial Times on Monday that the parties were at the "beginning of the end" of Europe's biggest conflict since World War II.

Maximizing interests

Wang noted that both sides are examining the trade-offs of the conflict. "Therefore, the war will only end when both parties realize that they can no longer achieve their desired gains through military means."

He explained that neither side will be able to declare total victory. "All parties seek to maximize their interests. Ukraine may concede on territorial issues, but, in exchange, it must obtain legally binding and enforceable security guarantees."

Zhang Hong noted that the conflict has entered a stage where fighting and negotiations are taking place at the same time. "The US' diplomatic efforts over the past year have failed to freeze the conflict, instead resulting in a stalemate of high-intensity military attrition and ineffective diplomatic standoff."

"In reality, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are becoming a bargaining chip for all parties to serve their domestic politics or international image, and a substantive agreement remains distant," he said.

The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on Tuesday calling for an immediate ceasefire and a comprehensive and lasting peace. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the crisis "a stain on our collective consciousness", urging an end to the conflict based on the UN Charter, international law and relevant UN resolutions.

Experts stressed that a sustainable solution requires moving beyond a zero-sum mindset and great-power frameworks. Zhang Hong pointed out that only by promoting multilateral collaboration among European and Global South countries, abandoning the zero-sum mindset, and integrating multilateral mechanisms into great-power coordination will it be possible to manage the crisis, balance the interests of all parties and safeguard lasting global security and stability.

Agencies contributed to this story.

yangran1@chinadaily.com.cn