1914 and raising a storm in a teacup

Historians and journalists, especially in the English-speaking world, are fond of swooping on a coincidence of dates and making speculative connections, providing intellectual depth to good stories and clever comments. It is not surprising, therefore, that comparisons are being drawn between the current international situation and that in 1914, on the eve of World War I.

The comparison acquires a new significance, however, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe starts applying it in earnest, attributing to China the position occupied by imperial Germany a century ago. One should know better than to compare the ways of Europe and East Asia, for there are too many historical, geographical and cultural differences. So how much attention should we pay to Abe's remarks?

The comparison works like this: following its unification, Germany had become a fast-growing economic power, rather like China today, but one which was yet to carve out a clearly recognized role in its region. In the 19th century, the dominant powers of Europe were Britain, France and Russia, and Germany was keen to claim equal status. Germany, like China in recent years, felt that it was getting too little respect from other countries; it wanted equality of esteem, its own "place in the sun".

Thus some parallels can be made: the role to be played by China in the region and the world, commensurate with its size and power, has not yet become clear, leading to apprehensions of how China's potential might be exercised. And there does exist in China a widespread sense of grievance, the feeling of not being treated as an equal by the United States, and of course the historical animus against imperial Japan.

In imperial Germany, this grievance took the form of a powerful arms build-up, particularly on the seas. Germany desired to catch up with Britain, the greatest naval power of the age. China's deployment of the aircraft carrier Liaoning may appear similarly motivated, but it is not clearly aimed at any other specific major power - more at bringing its military capability up to a level commensurate with China's aspirations for strictly regional power projection. And this is where the differences between 1914 and 2014 become apparent.