1914 and raising a storm in a teacup

Of course, other countries will worry about the rapid strengthening of the armed forces of a neighbor, particularly given the number of minor regional disputes. And that certainly applies to many of China's neighbors, particularly in the South China Sea region.

But the early 20th-century German buildup had very clearly defined targets. The expansion of the navy was intended to match and thereby neutralize British sea power, whereas the strengthening and reorganization of the German army was aimed specifically at following up the 1870 victory over France. Besides, German diplomacy tried to ensure (unsuccessfully as it turned out) that Russia would remain neutral, leaving Germany free to concentrate on the campaign against France without any threat in the rear.

The use of this comparison is twofold for Japan. The first is to warn the Western powers, the successors of Kaiser Wilhelm's opponents, of the so-called dangers China's position and policies pose to peace. And the second is to underpin Japan's own current strategy. Japan has already made some unusual moves in regional diplomacy. The Abe government is attempting to strengthen relations with India and even Russia. Perhaps this can be interpreted as a signal that Japan seeks to follow the strategy of the Anglo-French entente in the years before 1914, and ensure that, if China becomes aggressive, it will need to watch out on more than one front.

But the circumstances which led Europe into war in 1914 simply do not exist in East Asia in 2014. Despite the eternal quarrels and mistrust between China and Japan, one cannot conceive of China's military buildup as a detailed plan for invasion and conquest. Also, China has shown no sign of resolving the Korean Peninsula issue by force. Insofar as China can be seen to have any proactive military intentions, they would seem to be limited to creating an unchallengeable fait accompli around the various disputed islands in the region.

Another vital difference is that East Asia lacks the network of alliances which drew one European country after another into war in 1914. There are no security alliances in the Asia-Pacific region except bilateral treaties involving the US, and the US is certainly not going to get dragged into hostilities without an extremely compelling reason. So East Asia can breathe easily; there will be no re-run of either world wars in 2014.

The author, part of the British Diplomatic Service from 1986 to 2006 including nine years in Beijing, is now a freelance writer, journalist and commentator.