China-Japan talks a silver lining

Protesters chant slogans at a rally against Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to expand Japan's military role abroad, near the Japanese consulate in Hong Kong July 4, 2014.

This is really good news in the beginning of the year: China and Japan resumed talks over a maritime liaison mechanism in Tokyo on Jan 12. Both sides agreed to initiate the mechanism at the earliest possible date.

This restarts an aborted effort. In June 2012, the Chinese and Japanese militaries almost concluded the mechanism, with an aim to avoid dangerous situations at sea. But the consultation couldn't continue since the Japanese government decided to "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands in September. Before Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to Beijing for the APEC summit in November, 2014, the two governments reached a four-point consensus in which crisis management is stressed. This paved the way for renewed talks.

The danger of misunderstanding and even miscalculations between the second and the third largest economy in the world, however unfortunate, is a worrisome reality. In the last two years, tensions have risen in the waters off the disputed islands. China and Japan now have large overlapping areas of Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ). The chances of dangerous encounters of military aircraft have grown considerably.

Japan's reconnaissance and surveillance in China's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the East China Sea, sometimes in tandem with its American ally, have intensified. The Chinese naval flotillas' transit passages through Japanese straits to the West Pacific, although in line with international laws, would always invite Japanese tracking and probing.

In spite of such uncertainty, there is no institutionalized mechanism of crisis management between the two countries, let alone a hotline between the two militaries, such as the one between China and the United States, and the one between China and Russia.