People factor key to 'Belt and Road'

Tourists ride camels on the Mingsha Sand Dunes during a visit to Crescent Moon Spring on the outskirts of Dunhuang county. [Photo by Fan Chen]

China's Belt and Road Initiative to boost common development must overcome geopolitical, cultural and security risks, because it should be aimed more at benefiting people and less at making money.

The cultivation of talents, a key factor that turns blueprints into reality, is dependent on China's relations with the world. China's reform and opening-up over the past more than three decades increased the exchange of talents with the rest of the world thanks to the rising number of Chinese students going abroad for studies and foreign enterprises bringing in more engineers and managers to China.

Chinese people, especially the younger generations, have more knowledge about the developed world than the developing world. So the government, as the main promoter of the Belt and Road Initiative, should encourage Chinese people to more closely study the histories, cultures, economies and religions of the developing countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.

Many local governments and enterprises in China have high expectations from the Belt and Road Initiative, but most of their interests are related to infrastructure projects, trade and capital. They don't seem to care much about Chinese people's understanding of the ground situations in foreign countries.

Studying the ground realities in target countries before venturing into them is very important for Chinese enterprises, because if the people of a country do not welcome them, they simply cannot do business there. So getting the green light from such countries' governments does not necessarily guarantee success in business.

China has a rich pool of educated and talented people because of rapid economic growth for more than 30 years, but they are spread across different sectors, departments and regions. As a result, Chinese capital and competitive enterprises can "go global" soon but the government cannot coordinate its human resources to make all such projects a success. This means some people who have the knowledge and skills to propel many projects to success cannot participate in them, and some of those who lead these projects might not be the right choice for the job.

Although some universities have set up Belt and Road institutes and some think tanks have started research into the initiative, few conduct in-depth studies to be able to forecast the outcomes. And since most of their conclusions lack the support of firsthand data, and professional research in interregional economics and politics, they don't have much value for decision-makers.

Worse, some "star" experts good at using the media, but without sound geopolitical and economic knowledge, pop up frequently influencing the authorities' judgments and diverting public attention from crucial subjects.

China should encourage its universities, schools for Party members and civil servants, military institutes and think tanks to build a complete education system for the Belt and Road Initiative. The formation of a talent pool, which has sound knowledge of the target countries, cannot wait, because without in-depth understanding of the realties it would be extremely dangerous to invest huge amounts of strategic resources in those countries. Setting up such a brain bank at home can save China a lot of trouble overseas.

Moreover, people-to-people exchanges with the target countries should be increased in order to attract more students and experts to study and work in China This will deepen mutual understanding and maximize mutual interest.

How fast the Belt and Road Initiative can be carried out depends on the political will of the governments in the target countries. And how large the initiative will become depends on the flow of technology and capital. Yet how successful it will be in the long run will be decided by the people factor.

The author is a researcher in international issues at Tsinghua University.

(China Daily 05/23/2015 page5)