Israeli allegations of kidnapping increase political uncertainty

KIDNAPPING AS A BARGAINING CHIP

Attempts to kidnap Israelis and use hostages as bargaining chips in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners have occurred before so it is not surprising why Netanyahu would make quick allegations against Hamas.

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said on Saturday that 30 attempts were thwarted in 2013 to kidnap Israelis, with 14 foiled since the beginning of 2014.

Israeli jails are filled with thousands of Palestinian prisoners and a core issue for Palestinians is their release. But both Fatah and Hamas differ over how to solve the issue.

"There's a deep division among Palestinians regarding the use of kidnapping Israeli citizens or soldiers in the context of the Palestinian prisoners. Hamas supports it and the Palestinian Authority rejects it altogether, acting against it and opting for an agreed settlement with Israel as suggested by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry instead," Meital said.

Israel holds about 5,000 Palestinian prisoners in its jails. Many Palestinians regard them as heroes in a struggle for statehood, while Israel brands prisoners involved in attacks against Israelis as "terrorists." Some 300 Palestinian inmates that are being held indefinitely without charges are currently participating in a hunger strike in protest.

In 2006, Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier, was abducted in the Gaza Strip by Hamas and was released five years later under an agreement which set free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Some Israeli commentaries now say that if the teens have been kidnapped, Netanyahu may have to make similar tough decisions and release more Palestinian prisoners, who many Israelis view as " terrorists," to secure the release of the teens.

OVERALL IMPACT?

The massive manhunt by Israel's security forces in the southern West Bank has so far failed to locate the teens.

"It's too soon to say and it depends on how the incident plays out," Shay said, adding if it ends shortly and positively, it's likely not to have a big impact.

But the analyst warned the longer the search lasts the more friction is likely to occur between the Israeli military forces in territories conducting the searches and arrests and the Palestinian community, which will "add fuel" to the fire.

Meital said Netanyahu's government could use this incident to justify "aggressive steps" such as announcing unequivocally that it will no longer conduct any more diplomatic contacts with the unity government.

"If the government would consider these steps, Netanyahu would have to take into account the political ramifications, including the possibility (that the center-left parties in the ruling coalition) would leave the government," he said.