Nation's emissions could peak by 2025, report says

( China Daily )

Updated: 2015-06-26

China's greenhouse gas emissions could peak in the next five to 10 years, earlier than previously expected, which would contribute to efforts to curb global warming, according to a report jointly published by two institutes at the London School of Economics in early June.

Analyzing trends in the key emissions sectors, researchers concluded in the report that China's greenhouse gas emissions stand a high chance of peaking by 2025, much earlier than 2030, the upper limit set by the Chinese government last year.

The finding suggests it is increasingly likely that the world will avoid global warming of more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the institutes said.

China's shift to eco-friendly growth has profound implications for the global economy, and "greatly increases the prospects for keeping global greenhouse gas emissions within relatively safe limits", according to the report.

"The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris later this year will be more successful if governments everywhere understand the extent of change in China, its implications for global emissions, and the positive impact that China's clean industrial development, investment and innovation plans are likely to have on global markets for clean goods and services," it added.

In a joint statement issued during a November visit last year to Beijing by US President Barack Obama, China pledged to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent by 2030.

Energy consumption per unit of GDP was cut by 5.6 percent in the first quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, suggesting that the full-year target of 3.1 percent should be easily within reach.

"We are relatively optimistic about fulfilling the full year's target," Zhang Yong, vice-chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in May.

However, he said, efforts should not be relaxed as pressure caused by economic adjustment and lower prices for fossil fuels such as coal and oil could divert the attention of local governments and entrepreneurs away from saving energy.

The country will ensure it meets its 16 percent energy-saving goal for the 2011-15 period and may even exceed that, he said.

Economic restructuring has been a major factor in the country's efforts to save energy. Investment in fuel-guzzling industries has been strictly controlled, said Zhou Dadi, a senior researcher at the commission's Energy Research Institute.

Changes to the economic structure have also borne fruit. The service sector, which accounted for 51.6 percent of GDP in the first quarter, has outpaced the growth of the industrial sector.

"The country should maintain an ambitious energy-saving target of not less than 16 percent for the next five years," Zhou said.

Meanwhile, China is making preparations for the United Nations Climate Change Conference due to take place in Paris at the end of the year. It will submit its proposals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to the UN by the end of June, Zhang said.

INDCs state what post-2020 climate actions countries will take under a new international agreement. More than 190 countries may reach an agreement in Paris that will limit an increase in global temperature to 2 degrees.

Janos Pasztor, the UN's assistant secretary-general on climate change, said in New York in early May that 37 countries have submitted their INDCs.

Zhang said: "China's action plan is in tandem with energy-saving and emissions reduction efforts. We will earnestly implement our commitments to the international community."

Zhang was appointed vice-chairman of the commission in December, and he is in charge of climate change issues, investment in fixed assets and rural development.

The State Council issued a document on Tuesday that said the environment should be protected in a sustainable way alongside efforts to boost economic prosperity.

The document revealed that a lifelong accountability system should be established to track officials' performance in the field of environmental protection.

Officials will assume accountability for their decisions if they damage the environment, even after they leave their posts.

"This accountability should not be limited to single projects, but should also apply to the formulation of policy," Zhou said.